Final 2023 Oscars predictions: Who will win at the Academy Awards?

 

Oscars 2023

The Oscars, also known as the Academy Awards, are the most prestigious awards in the film

industry. The annual event honors the best films, actors, directors, and other industry

professionals in various categories. The 95th Oscars ceremony is set to take place on March

27, 2023, and is expected to be an exciting and memorable event.

The nomination process for the Oscars typically begins in late December, with nominations

being announced in early January. This gives the Academy ample time to review and judge the

hundreds of films released in the previous year. The 2023 Oscars will likely honor films

released between January 1, 2022, and December 31, 2022.

It's difficult to predict which films will be nominated for the Oscars, as it's ultimately up to the

Academy to decide. However, there are always a few films that generate buzz and are widely

regarded as contenders. One such film is "The French Dispatch," directed by Wes Anderson.

The film is an anthology that follows a group of journalists working for a fictional magazine in

France. It features an all-star cast, including Tilda Swinton, Bill Murray, and Frances

McDormand, and is expected to be a major contender in several categories.

Another film that could potentially receive multiple nominations is "Don't Look Up," directed

by Adam McKay. The film is a political satire that follows two astronomers who discover a

comet on a collision course with Earth. It features an ensemble cast that includes Leonardo

DiCaprio, Jennifer Lawrence, and Meryl Streep, among others.

Other films that could potentially receive nominations include "Belfast," directed by Kenneth

Branagh, "The Power of the Dog," directed by Jane Campion, and "Spencer," directed by Pablo

Larrain. It's also worth noting that the 2023 Oscars will likely be the first to include films

released exclusively

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Best Picture predictions

It's difficult to find a blueprint for the rise of Everything Everywhere All at Once, a movie 

that had to be as loud and vibrant as the narrative at its core to be taken seriously on the 

awards trail. Its stellar box office performance (an original script at a specialty distributor 

making $106 million globally is no small feat in 2023) and critical merits alone weren't 

enough to get it on the radar of pundits early on, but it has since blossomed into the front-

running contender it's deserved to be all along.

Enthusiastic, cross-branch support from the Academy resulted in 11 nominations, including 

some in unexpected categories (Best Original Song, for instance), signaling wide-reaching 

appeal. Other films endured nearly as long, but blockbusters like Top Gun: Maverick don't 

have the same heat in key branches (that film doesn't have any acting nominations or a 

directing nod, while Everything has four — for each member of its principal cast — as well 

as its filmmakers). You don't ride nearly a year's worth of good favor to nearly a dozen 

nominations unless you're solidly occupying a No. 1 or No. 2 slot on Academy voters' 

ranked preferential ballots, and that's not a factor that will change between now and Oscars 

night, with the SAG Awards giving the project an even stronger profile heading into final 

balloting with an unprecedented four victories during the ceremony by an organization with 

crossover membership among the most influential branch in the Academy.. The film's 

nearest competitors — The Fabelmans, The Banshees of Inisherin, and TÁR — also haven't 

translated precursor nominations into hardware quite like Everything has. It's an exciting, 

bold film that signals not only excellence in what's already been made, but great things to 

come thanks to the doors it has opened for the future of original stories in Hollywood.

1. Everything Everywhere All at Once
2. The Banshees of Inisherin
3. The Fabelmans
4. All Quiet on the Western Front
5. TÁR
6. Elvis
7. Triangle of Sadness
8. Top Gun: Maverick
9. Women Talking
10. Avatar the way of water

Best Director predictions

If ever the Academy had an old boys club, the Best Director category is it. An increasingly 

difficult category to predict, the branch notoriously goes rogue and deviates from the awards

season narrative, often favoring steadfast heavyweights (Steven Spielberg, this year) and 

international (mostly male) auteurs with standout feats (Ruben Östlund, on the list below) in

any given year (Thomas Vinterberg and Paweł Pawlikowski in recent years). In 2023, 

they've anointed a pair of newcomers with a project that's swept the commercial scene as 

A24's top-grossing title ($106 million and counting, thanks to a theatrical re-release) with 

both critical and industry favor that recently won the Directors Guild of America prize, 

which has gone to eight of the last 10 eventual Best Director winners at the Oscars. The 

Daniels' project is a runaway hit with a bold, genre-mixing vision (sci-fi, metaverse drama, 

action) that's risen through the ranks as an organic hit riding on quality and quality alone — 

something filmmakers across any generation can (and will) recognize on Oscar night.

1. Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert, Everything Everywhere All at Once
2. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans
3. Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin
4. Todd Field, TÁR
5. Ruben Östlund, Triangle of Sadness

Best Actor predictions

Each of this year's Best Actor nominees occupies a unique space in the awards race. For the 

first time in decades, each honoree is a first-timer in the traditionally competitive category. 

While it places each leading man on a somewhat level playing field, Brendan Fraser's turn 

as a 600-pound recluse in Darren Aronofsky's The Whale ticks certain tried-and-true boxes 

that the Academy tends to favor. For starters, Fraser transformed his body to portray 

Charlie, a man living with a life-threatening case of obesity, via various physical prosthetics 

as well as digital manipulation. He's also playing a queer man, which, as we've seen with 

straight actors in this category's history (Sean Penn in Milk, Tom Hanks in Philadelphia, 

Rami Malek in Bohemian Rhapsody, Philip Seymour Hoffman in Capote, etc.), is often a 

winning strategy.

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The only problem? Fraser was the statistical frontrunner, until Austin Butler, who won at the

Globes for playing real-life entertainment legend in Elvis, also triumphed over Fraser at the 

BAFTAs in their first real matchup of industry voters, not just journalists comprising the 

Globes and Critics Choice. Colin Farrell (also a Globe winner, leading the cast of the 

acclaimed Best Picture contender The Banshees of Inisherin) seemed like he might make 

late surges, but BAFTA going for his film in key, surprise categories (Supporting Actress, 

Supporting Actor, Best British Film) and paying him dust indicates the race is between 

Butler and Fraser. We're giving it to Fraser here, mostly because of his commendable 

navigation of the circuit, with a glimmering reputation as a charismatic, endearing, and 

lovable persona — the star he's always been, in front of the camera or otherwise — coupled 

with a comeback narrative (versus Butler's still-budding legacy) that's equally deserving of 

the accolade of a lifetime. His Feb. 26 SAG victory proved he still has considerable might 

among his peers who represent the Academy's largest and most influential branch. His 

emotional acceptance speech also came just before final Oscar balloting, so Fraser's 

heartfelt words were fresh in voters' memories as they sent out their ballots. 

1. Brendan Fraser, The Whale
2. Austin Butler, Elvis
3. Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin
4. Bill Nighy, Living
5. Paul Mescal, Aftersun

Best Actress prediction

We know, we know — Cate Blanchett's performance in TÁR is career-best work. It has won 

nearly every precursor imaginable thus far. But, as The Great Olivia Colman Upset Over 

Glenn Close of 2019 (official title) proved, Best Actress is a place where legends can unseat 

legends, and momentum for Michelle Yeoh (and Everything Everywhere All at Once) has 

only grown in recent weeks, especially after her rousing acceptance speeches at the 2023 

SAG Awards, where she took the stage to accept both Female Actor in a Leading Role and 

the Cast accolades. Her film racked up an impressive 11 Oscar nods (even in unexpected 

categories, like Best Original Song) — something the cast and crew admittedly never 

imagined before the film became A24's highest-grossing picture of all time in early 2022. 

Sustaining (and even building) passionate support this long, through to the SAG Awards, 

where she overtook Blanchett, is telling when it comes to gauging Hollywood's affection for

this film, and, given the Academy's growing international tastes, it feels like a betrayal of 

the industry's across-the-board, unified support for the film to predict anyone but Yeoh to 

take home the gold in this contentious category.

Still, as unpredictable as the Academy can be, there's an equally compelling case to bet on 

this season simply being a Blanchett steamroll, and report card statistics are in her favor, 

especially since she repeated (again) at the BAFTAs. But, on-paper statistics are simply no 

match for the burning passion Hollywood has displayed for Yeoh this season.

1. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once
2. Cate Blanchett, TÁR
3. Ana de Armas, Blonde
4. Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans
5. Andrea Riseborough, To Leslie

Best Supporting Actor predictions

After his star-making turns in the Indiana Jones franchise and The Goonies, Ke Huy 

Quan largely disappeared from Hollywood for nearly four decades, but his roaring return 

has written itself into the industry's history book as one of the most inspiring comeback 

stories in recent memory. Not only has the Everything Everywhere All at Once actor tickled 

voters' souls with his unfiltered, heartfelt (and, most importantly, widely televised) 

acceptance speeches at the Golden Globes and Critics Choice Awards that paid tribute to the

nostalgia of his early career, he gives a genuinely masterful performance in the Daniels' 

metaverse epic. Quan's personal run throughout the season is complimentary to the film's 

appeal, as both have reigned against the odds as organic, unpredictable, runaway success 

stories no one could have seen coming — that is, until Oscar night.

1. Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once 
2. Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin
3. Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin
4. Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans
5. Brian Tyree Henry, Causeway

Best Supporting Actress predictions

Angela Bassett becoming the first performer to receive a nomination for a Marvel 

movie makes sense with Hollywood's collective fantasy. She's a beloved actress who has 

weathered the storm of an ever-changing industry across multiple decades, having already 

succeeded as a prestige performer (her first Oscar nod came for 1993's What's Love Got to 

Do With It?), commercially viable TV star (American Horror Story, 9-1-1), and — in Black 

Panther: Wakanda Forever — as a ticket-selling entity with cross-demographic appeal in 

the kind of big-budget tentpole that's largely kept the business afloat for the last 20 years. 

She's proof that movie stars can not only endure but thrive as Hollywood changes around 

them, and her gilded precursor run (she's appeared on every major ceremony's roster so far, 

and has won at the Globes and Critics Choice Awards) suggests her peers paid attention. 

Now, more than ever, is the right time for them to anoint her rise as she levels up yet again.

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But, as we saw at the BAFTAs and SAG Awards, deep cracks formed in that narrative — 

proving that certain story lines can only sustain for finite periods. With the Academy's 

increasingly international membership from countries around the world joining its ranks, 

we've seen the likes of commercially mighty celebrities with statistical power (Lady Gaga 

in House of Gucci, Jennifer Lopez in Hustlers, Angelina Jolie in A Mighty Heart) fail to 

catch on, so don't dismiss Kerry Condon's recent BAFTA win and Jamie Lee Curtis' SAG 

victory as flukes — both will likely spoil Bassett's reign, seeing as Curtis gave a tearful 

acceptance speech days before final balloting opened, atop Everything Everywhere's history-

making run as the most-awarded movie in SAG history.

1. Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once
2. Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin
3. Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
4. Hong Chau, The Whale
5. Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once

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